In Which I Make My Yearly Oscar Picks

It's that time of year again, guys -- Oscar season! The magical time of year when people gather under the mistletoe to drink mulled Colombian cocaine (just like their favorite stars!); go into the woods to chop down Cuba Gooding Jr., and decorate their house with his tinsel-bestrewn body; and shave their heads and spray paint themselves gold, just like Oscar himself! Then they die, like that girl in Goldfinger.

But before they do, hopefully they get a chance to watch the Academy Awards ceremony, literally the only Hollywood awards show to be called the Academy Awards! Who will win? Who will lose? Who will that delightfully catty Joan Rivers harass on the red carpet? And when will some crazy sniper snipe Joan Rivers already?

If you're anything like me, you're about 5'11, dark-haired, and named Dan. (BWAH-HA-HA! Thanks, Academy Awards mainstay Bruce Villanch! I'll send that check to your Cayman Islands account.) And if you're anything like me, you're already making your picks for the office Oscar pool. So consider this a handy guide to the likely winners, so you can smoke that irritating secretary out of her five bucks. Just don't forget to send me my cut of your winnings! Rimshot! (Bruce, you've done it again!)

Of course, if you are anything like me, you know all this stuff already... and if you're like me, you're in the middle of writing an article about it... maybe this article.

Maybe you ARE me.

Okay, now I'm scared. I take it back. Fuck you, Villanch. Let's just get straight to the predictions.

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Look to Juno to win this category because Diablo Cody former stripper blogger blog blog bloggity stripper strip strip strip! She blogged! And then stripped about it! Stripping blog Diablo stripper strippity strip Cody strip strip. Strip. Kimya Dawson.

Odds - 1:1

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Atonement should sweep this category, as screenwriter Christopher Hampton (Oscar nominee for Dangerous Liasons) adapted the shit out of that scene where Keira Knightly climbed out of the fountain in a clingy, wet white slip. Basically, with this, and the Uma Thurman scenes in his previous nomination, Hampton is the man to beat when it comes to high-toned literary tit-envisioning.

Odds - 2:1

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Cate Blanchett will win for her amazing committment to the role of Bob Dylan. Much like Robert DeNiro, who gained 80 pounds to play Jake LaMotta in Raging Bull, Blanchett put on 0.5 pounds, in the form of a working penis. She also converted to Judaism, spent years in New York as a folk singer, went electric, went through a Christian period, then did a Victoria's Secret ad. All while being kind of a dick.

Odds - 0.5 lbs:1

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

While Casey Affleck will pick up an Independent Spirit Award for the "Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Film With a Title Exceeding Nine Words in Length," Philip Seymor Hoffman will win this one for his uncanny ability to sweat on cue.

Odds - Philip:Seymour Hoffman

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

After reading the reviews, I'd say it's less Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and more "Elizabeth: The P-HEW-ter Age," right? (All is forgiven, Bruce!) Anyway, Ellen Page is a shoo-in in this category, because I am in love with her. Really. She's mine. Back off all you skinny-jean emo boys, or I will FUCKING CUT YOU WITH MY KNIFE. Ellen, we can be together. I feel it deep in my soul.

Odds - Seriously, back the fuck off.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Daniel Day-Lewis will win this one, for his stirring portrayal of an innocent capitalist driven mad by society’s intolerance of men with funny voices and milkshake obsessions.

Odds – mustache:1

BEST PICTURE

Michael Clayton
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country for Old Men

This is such a strong field that Best Picture is a tough race to call. Thus, we can only pick a winner using the traditional method. Anagrams.

Right away, Juno is disqualified for having no anagrams. Sorry, Juno! Guess like you died in childbirth! Ha ha ha ha ha! But seriously, that would be tragic.

Michael Clayton gives us “Ethnically Coma,” which seems both depressing and potentially racist, and also “Technical Loamy.” Sorry, Michael Clayton – I prefer my loam to be actual, not to skate in through a loophole.

Atonement gives us “Matte Neon,” which just doesn’t make sense. Neon is inherently glossy. Make up your mind, Atonement!

No Country for Old Men is more promising. It renders “Nor Not Monocled Fury,” which was, I believe, the original subtitle to Edith Wharton’s The House of Mirth. Also “Unforced Nylon Motor,” which sounds like a tremendous invention.

Ultimately, however, There Will Be Blood has to emerge triumphant, on the strength of “Boobed Hitler Well.” I don’t know what it means, but I find it both horrifying and titillating. And what more can you expect from a movie?

Sodd - Blob:Lewd Hotelier

Happy wagering!